The Philippine women’s national football team still has its fate in its hands to move on to the next phase of the 2025 ASEAN Women's MSIG Serenity Cup in Vietnam, where the Filipinas are defending champions, but there isn’t much room for error.
After a costly one-nil loss to Australia U23 during their last game, the Filipinas must now fight for the full three points in their last group stage match against long-time rivals Myanmar on Wednesday.
Myanmar is currently leading the group with six points. Only the top two in each group advance to the knockout semis.
[READ: Filipinas absorb setback in MSIG Serenity Cup title defense after narrow loss to Australia U23]
Due to tiebreak rules of the MSIG Serenity Cup, the Filipinas will need to meet specific requirements to prevent an early exit.
Take a look at all the ways the Filipinas can enter the semifinals.
Two is the magic number
Simply put, the Philippines will secure a spot in the next round if the PWNFT beats Myanmar by two goals or more in their final match. This is regardless of the result between Australia and Timor-Leste. That is the best path for the Filipinas.
It's also possible for the Philippines to reach the knockout if:
- they score three or more goals vs Myanmar in a victory, regardless of the win margin,
- the Filipinas win by a goal vs Myanmar but Australia draws or loses to Timor-Leste,
- the Filipinas end in a draw vs Myanmar, and Australia loses to Timor-Leste.
A Philippine loss to Myanmar means outright elimination.
Tiebreak rules
Ranking teams in each group are determined in descending order:
- Greater number of points obtained in group matches.
- If two or more teams are equal on points, these criteria are applied in descending order:
- Higher number of points obtained in group matches played among the teams in question
- Superior goal difference among the group matches played among the teams in question
- Higher number of goals scored in group matches played among teams in question
Team standings | As of August 12
| Myanmar | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| Philippines | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | +6 | 3 |
| Australia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Timor-Leste | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -10 | 0 |
Match results
- Myanmar 2-1 Australia
- Philippines 7-0 Timor-Leste
- Timor-Leste 0-3 Myanmar
- Australia 1-0 Philippines
Now let's take a look at the scenarios one-by-one.
Scenario 1: PHI wins by two goals vs MYA; AUS def. TLS
The defending champions will have sealed their place in the knockouts, owing to the superior goal differential when it comes to the head-to-head results.
If the Philippines wins against Myanmar, and Australia beats Timor-Leste, that means PHI, MYA, and AUS have identical 2-1 win-loss records. Each will have six points.
Tiebreak rules indicate rankings will be decided based on (1) points, (2) goal differential, and (3) goals scored involving the tied teams. Meaning, in this three-way tie, matches between the Filipinas, Australia, and Myanmar will be looked at independent of their results against Timor Leste.
H2H tiebreak (points scored) in this scenario:
- Myanmar: 3 points (W vs Australia, L vs Philippines)
- Philippines: 3 points (L vs Australia, W vs Myanmar)
- Australia: 3 points (L vs Myanmar, W vs Philippines)
Since all teams remain tied based on points scored, the tiebreak shifts to goal difference among the three teams in their head-to-head matches.
- Myanmar: (-1)
- Philippines: 1
- Australia: 0
In this scenario, the Philippines and Australia move on to the semifinals, dropping Myanmar by virtue of goal difference.
Scenario 2: PHI wins by two goals vs MYA; TLS def. AUS
In this scenario, only Myanmar and the Philippines earn six points and identical 2-1 win-loss records. Australia would remain third with three points.
The Filipinas would then get the superior rank due to the head-to-head win vs Myanmar.
Scenario 3: PHI wins by one goal vs MYA; AUS def. TLS
If the Philippines wins only by 1-nil, Myanmar will overtake the Filipinas and move on to the next round. This is because the tiebreak will shift to goals scored in head-to-head matches if the teams remain tied in goal difference.
Here is the breakdown of goal difference in this scenario:
- Myanmar: 0
- Philippines: 0
- Australia: 0
Now shifting to break the tie with goals scored in head-to-head matches.
If the Philippines only wins 1-0, Myanmar and Australia are still ahead when it comes to goals scored:
- Myanmar: 2 (2-1 W vs Australia, 0-1 L vs Philippines)
- Australia: 2 (1-2 L vs Myanmar, 1-0 W vs Philippines)
- Philippines: 1 (0-1 L vs Australia, 1-0 W vs Myanmar)
If the Philippines wins 2-1, Myanmar is still number one. While Australia and the Philippines would be tied with two goals scored each, the Australians get the KO seat due to the superior head-to-head between the two.
- Myanmar: 3 (2-1 W vs Australia, 1-2 L vs Philippines)
- Australia: 2 (1-2 L vs Myanmar, 1-0 W vs Philippines)
- Philippines: 1 (0-1 L vs Australia, 2-1 W vs Myanmar)
If the Philippines wins 3-2 (or more than three goals regardless of margin), Myanmar and the Fiilipinas get the KO seat based on goals scored:
- Myanmar: 4 (2-1 W vs Australia, 2-3 L vs Philippines)
- Philippines: 3 (0-1 L vs Australia, 3-2 W vs Myanmar)
- Australia: 2 (1-2 L vs Myanmar, 1-0 W vs Philippines)
Scenario 4: PHI wins by one goal vs MYA; TLS def. or draw vs AUS
Now in the event that the Filipinas fail to win by two goals against Myanmar, but still get the full three points, the Philippines can secure the semifinal berth if Timor-Leste wins over Australia U23 in the other match in Viet Tri also on Wednesday night.
If the Matildas lose or draw against Timor-Leste, they will not be able to catch up.
Currently with three points after their win over the Filipinas, an Australia loss or draw (+1) against Timor-Leste will make the Philippines' and Myanmar’s six points unreachable.
Scenario 5: PHI draw vs MYA; AUS def. TLS
Should the Filipinas and Australia tie with four points, the latter gets the spot due to head-to-head tiebreak.
Myanmar gets seven points from two wins and a draw, while Australia gets six points from two wins and a loss. Meanwhile, the Philippines would have four points from one win, one draw, and one loss.
Scenario 6: PHI draw vs MYA; TLS def. AUS
If the Filipinas draw against Myanmar, they will need Australia to lose to Timor-Leste to get into the next round by virtue of superior points.
Myanmar would have seven points (two wins, one draw), the Philippines gets four (one win, one draw, one loss), and Australia remains with three points.
Scenario 7: PHI draw vs MYA; TLS draws vs AUS
In this scenario, Myanmar gets seven points, Australia would have four, and the Philippines would also have four. However, the Aussies would get the second spot due to the head-to-head win vs the Filipinas.
Scenario 8: MYA def. PHI
A loss to Myanmar effectively ends the Filipinas’ bid for the next round regardless of the result of Australia vs. Timor-Leste. The Aussies hold a superior head-to-head tiebreak against the Filipinas in the event both teams finish with three points.
Thus, a lot is riding on the Filipinas’ game against Myanmar — with their fate still in their hands as they aim to keep their title defense alive.
The Filipinas won their last match against Myanmar, 3-nil, in the Asian Games.
Of note, however, that the Filipinas are heading into the match with a youthful squad, owing to the fact that the MSIG Serenity Cup is held in a non-FIFA window, making most of the Filipinas’ foreign-based players unavailable due to club commitments.
All goal scorers in that 3-nil win — Sarina Bolden and Sara Eggesvik — are not on the current squad due to injury and club commitments, respectively.
The Filipinas kick off against Myanmar at the Lach Tray Stadium in Haiphong on Wednesday, August 13, at 8:30 p.m., Manila time.